This article was first published in January 2009 edition of CIO Pakistan.
This is second in the four part series covering the subject. In part I we set the stage - defining consumer electronic payments, channels through which it is conducted and trends in local industry. Search CIOPakistan.com for ‘ePayments’.
In this issue we discuss the role of popular Alternate Delivery Channels - ATM, Internet and Call Centres. We discuss the supply and demand in both developed and developing economies, and make recommendations on way moving forward for the Pakistani banks.
In 1939, world’s first mechanical cash dispenser installed in New York by City Bank of NY (now CitiBank) was actually removed due to lack of consumer interest. The experiment was repeated in London by Barclays with an electronic dispenser in 1967. Forty years later, there are estimated 1.7 Million around the world. These machines are ubiquitous – from Antarctica to large Navy ships.
Interestingly, half the world’s ATM machines are installed in 2 regions where the e-payment systems are most sophisticated. The US has over 400,000 ATM machines & Western Europe has 350,000. However, as saturation point reaches, highlighted by decreasing revenue per ATM, growth rates have slowed too.
In terms of ATM networks or switches, there is a very healthy competition. For example, the US has 40 networks that are independent to set their own policy for interchange and switch fee. The largest bank-led network belongs to Bank of America with over 17,000 machines in the US.
In terms of deployment strategy, half the ATMs in US & Western Europe are deployed by Independent Sales Organizations. ISO installs an ATM and lease it out to retail outlets. The retailer collects revenue from ATM fee of $1.50 - $2.50 per transaction. On average, a retailer collects $200 - $1,000 from an ATM and the monthly lease and communication costs are $150 - $500. How many outlets in Pakistan would like to see this kind of additional revenue?
There is extremely low penetration in developing economics. At the end of last year, India had approximately 32,000 and China had 130,000 ATM Machines (see ATM density chart for population normalization). However, the growth rates here at more than 20% annually. The markets are dominated by very few switches, and concept of ISO is in nascent stages even though it is a proven business case in the West.
At over 30%, Pakistan has highest growth rates for ATM installations in the world. This growth is however threatened due to industry slowdown as well as consolidation through M&A activity. This is not great news considering our ATM density is one-fiftieth of the West and even one-fifth of China. See the graph for better comparison.
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Unlike ISO which are highly profitable, banks lose money on ATMs everywhere, with US average loss of $250 per Bank run ATM. Then why do they continue to invest? In the words of a Wells Fargo Executive, ‘The truth is, if I didn't have ATMs, I wouldn't have customers”. Over 40% consumers list ATM availability as their first priority in selecting a bank.
So what does an ATM cost? The cost elements are:
Even by conservative estimates of several bank managers, monthly ATM costs average PKR 50,000 – 100,000 per ATM. The wide range suggests different banks have different efficiency levels in their purchasing and operations. Where does your bank fall within this range?
On the revenue side, an average ATM sees 65 transactions per day or 2,000 per month, of which 70% transactions by bank’s customers generate zero revenue. Hence monthly revenue is below PKR 10,000 per ATM. Did someone say peanuts?
This brings the losses to PKR 40,000 to PKR 90,000 per ATM. Transactions per ATM are also stalled for last many quarters. So revenue is not increasing while cost increases due to devaluation, higher electricity and insurance costs. No wonder banks call ATM their biggest loss leader.
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Clearly, it is a necessary investment particularly for consumer banking, and there is a strong demand which seems to have gone untapped. So banks can either reduce costs or increase revenue. How?
65 transactions per ATM per day compares palely to high volume ATMs that see 300+ transactions in some city locations in Pakistan and West. Banks can:
The first web-based IB applications came in early to mid 90s. At first these provided informational services but by 1998, many were providing domestic and international fund transfers and bill payments. By 2000 these were standard features for any bank in the West. Now these systems provide all services provided in at a branch - mortgages, auto loans, payroll, brokerage, IRAs, 401K, etc.
In Pakistan, 75% of the surveyed banks offer IB. However, some provide informational banking only yet others provide intra-bank transfers and 5 utility bill payments. That’s as feature rich as it gets. Why are we offering what others offered 15 years ago?
The future for IB is very promising. For informational banking, the growth last year was 100%, with daily volumes growing from 9,000 to 19,000.
Transaction volumes grew at 50% last year from PKR 8.3 Billion to PKR 12.2 Billion. An interesting element is amount per transaction; compared to average ATM withdrawal of Rs. 6,500 and average POS transactions of Rs. 4,000, IB averages at Rs. 33,000. This suggests that many higher value corporate transactions are taking place. What can banks do to attract small consumer transactions?
E-Commerce numbers of Pakistan are dismal. With 10 Million internet users and 6 Million debit/credit cards, there are a total of 19 Internet Merchants with monthly processing of PKR 30 Million ($ 375,000). Waqar electronics in Karachi does more business every month. Internationally, compare this to monthly sales of $ 1.5 Billion by just Amazon.com. Why stake-holders have not encouraged this mode of payments?
Banks need to increase traffic and transactions by bringing offline processes online.
Think about it – Banks in the West did these 10 years ago, and we have access to same security and technology vendors as they do.
Almost all banks in Pakistan now have a 24x7 call centre. The services provided vary depending on deployed technology and use cases. Some provide informational banking – so support on product information and transactions. Others allow automated PIN reset and fund transfers to bill payments.
Consumer’s use of call centre for informational banking has grown by only 5% over the last year. This compares to 100% growth in IB. For transactional banking, volumes have gone down from PKR 2.7 Billion to 2.55 Billion (negative 5%). Average transaction value has also decreased by 15%.
A dying horse? Perhaps; but let’s see what over the counter drugs can do!
Following these suggestions can easily reduce the CAPEX by 90% and OPEX by 50%. Consumers will be happier, calls will be shorter, lines will move fast and your ROI will smell better than a dying horse.
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In the third part, we look at the plastic industry – the cards and associated POS. And in the fourth & final part, we focus on branchless banking, allowing for banking through retail outlets.
About the Author
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Farzal is passionate about delivery channels – from Branchless Banking and 24x7 Direct Insurance to Mobile Multimedia and Social Networking. He has worked at 4 start-ups in addition to Merrill Lynch and BearingPoint. He is a Director at amaana, teaches E-Commerce at IBA, consults professionally and lives at farzal@ciopakistan.com |